Arctic researcher: Polar ice is melting–adapt to it

The Arctic, a vast area of 15 million square kilometres around the North Pole, has remained untouched and largely uncharted for as long as the planet has hosted humankind. However, the silence of this remote, lonely ice desert will not be there for much longer. “The polar ice is melting and we can’t stop it. We need to adapt to climate change and take advantage of the opportunities for sustainability it brings”, says Dr Morten Rasch, scientific leader at the Arctic Research Centre of Aarhus University in Denmark.

Global warming is expected to increase average annual temperatures in some Arctic areas by seven degrees Celsius or even more within the next century. It will certainly prompt a great number of almost unbelievable changes, of which two harvests of fruit a year in the northern part of Central Europe wouldn’t seem too farfetched.

“Of course, it’s not all that rosy in every aspect,” says Morten Rasch. “The warming will inevitably make some animal populations extinct and some human ways of life obsolete. Much of it will be a great loss for the planet.”

This is the price we have to pay for our exploitation of natural resources, producing greenhouse gases that the planet’s ecosystems are unable to absorb. As a young researcher thirty years ago making his first field trips to Greenland, Morten Rasch had no doubt that global warming would have a disastrous effect on the planet.

“The man-induced climate change is already a reality and it will certainly change the world as we know it. Still, we are so used to thinking about global warming in terms of disadvantages”, he says. “Sometimes it seems taboo to think of it also in terms of opportunities.”

“Global warming is how the environment is adapting to the damage we, humankind, should assume responsibility for. However, we can neither undo the harm completely, nor stop global warming. We should of course stop polluting so as not to accelerate the warming any further”, Dr Rasch continues.

“The ice is melting, and it is equally important for us to adapt and figure out what sustainable opportunities the imminent climate change will bring with it.”

Throughout his career as a polar researcher, Dr Rasch has been monitoring the ice cover on Greenland. With every confidence today, he can say that the entire Arctic Ocean will open up—at least for some weeks during summer—within the next fifty years.

The International Energy Agency estimates that the Arctic may contain almost one quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves. This is equivalent to three years’ global consumption of hydrocarbons or, in current monetary terms, it can be valued at over USD 1 trillion.

The potential value of the North Pole and the surrounding area is not limited to the mineral riches below the seabed. In 2008, the European Space Agency reported that the Northern Sea Route, a seaway from Europe to the Pacific and North America along Arctic coasts, opened up from ice for the first time.

When it is fully navigable for up to 45 days a year within the next ten years or so, the Northern Sea Route will cut the shipping time between Europe and Asia by a third.

This explains why the world is setting its eyes on the Arctic. The littoral countries are announcing large-scale spending on upgrading their presence in the “high seas”. Both Arctic and non-Arctic countries are building icebreakers to explore the Northern Sea Route. The cost of a modern Arctic-type icebreaker may vary from several hundred million to about a billion euros, as Russia recently announced about its new nuclear ice-class vessel.

New sea routes and lucrative oil and gas deposits in the Arctic has become a bone of contention between world powers, since there is no international agreement or regulatory framework in place for the region.

The Arctic littoral countries view parts of the ocean as their national waters and are busy “putting footprints in the snow” to assert northern sovereignty. Both Denmark and Russia argue that the underwater Lomonosov Ridge passing near the North Pole is an extension of, respectively, Greenland or the Russian continental shelf. In 2007, a Russian expedition planted a rustproof titanium alloy Russian flag on the seabed at the Pole.

“Under international law, however, no country owns the North Pole and the surrounding ocean”, the expert reminds us.

“Therefore, bilateral agreements between the littoral states seem to be the only possible approach at the moment. I believe the ‘Wild West’ stage, with no clear-cut borders or common regulatory framework, will soon be over in the Arctic”, he adds.

There are good reasons to believe we are progressing towards more cooperation, rather than rivalry, in the Arctic. Thirteen countries, including the Arctic nations, as well as Germany, China, South Korea and some others, have established research stations on the Norwegian Arctic archipelago of Svalbard. A university centre in a small town of two thousand people on the same archipelago hosts about 200 scientists and 400 students, of whom half are Norwegian and the other half are from 23 other countries.

Non-Arctic countries are seeking closer cooperation with the Arctic Council, an organisation established in 1996 by Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the US to promote international cooperation in research and development into environmental policies in the region.

China became an observer in the council and inaugurated its own Arctic research centre in 2013. China Daily quoted a governmental official as saying his country should focus on strengthening communication with the front-runners in polar research, such as the Nordic countries.

“I’m sure international cooperation in the Arctic would only gain from both Nordic scientific expertise in the area and from the Nordic model of choosing partnership over contention”, says Dr Rasch.

“When law and order regarding shipping, tourism, and resource development in Arctic waters are established and accepted by the international community, large private investors will start eyeing the region for business opportunities. This will be the time for the banks to come in”, he continues.

A 2012 report by the London-based Chatham House suggests that investments in oil, gas and mining, fisheries, logistics and shipping as well as tourism in the Arctic could amount to USD 100 billion or more over the next decade. The reports points at the Barents Sea region, north of Norway and Russia, as the most likely epicentre of the investment. Other major investments could be directed at Greenland and Canada.

“Although the sea will be open in the foreseeable future, the Arctic environment will remain very fragile and the weather conditions harsh. The countries of the regions need to develop support infrastructure for rescuing people and the environment in emergency situations”, says Dr Rasch.

The vast Arctic area will soon need new deep-water ports, roads, pipelines, electricity grids and telecommunication networks. Much of the existing infrastructure will soon face massive costs of damage caused by the melting of the frozen soil.

“The future of the Arctic environment is very uncertain, and so are the future economic gains from the Arctic”, says the polar scientist.

“Climate change is likely to provide lucrative opportunities for global business. The manifold opportunities will only be tapped if the actors involved continue building cross-border cooperation to limit their environmental footprint in the snow and further explore the High North”, he concludes.